The Tactical Empire

Stock Market Volatility: Staying Focused During Uncertain Times

Episode Summary

In this episode of Tactical Empire, hosts Jeff Smith and Shawn Rider discuss the recent volatility in the stock market, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and not succumbing to emotional reactions. They explore the dynamics of market fluctuations, the opportunities that arise during downturns, and the significance of having a solid financial strategy. The conversation highlights the need for financial education and the benefits of focusing on cash flow and liquidity, especially in uncertain economic times.

Episode Notes

In this episode of The Tactical Empire, Jeff Smith and Shawn Rider break down the recent dip in the stock market and why it’s not worth losing sleep over. With a 7–8% drop in equities over 48–72 hours, many are feeling uncertain—but Jeff and Shawn explain why the headlines are mostly noise for long-term thinkers.

They explore how emotional reactions to short-term volatility can sabotage long-term wealth building, and how understanding market cycles and staying liquid can help you take advantage of downturns rather than fear them. Jeff shares insights into what he believes is really happening behind the scenes—from economic strategy to political theater—and why the moves being made right now could lead to significant opportunity over the next 6–18 months.

Shawn reinforces the Tactical Empire philosophy: focus on cash flow, protect your capital, and stay focused on what you can control. Whether you're investing in real estate, business, or equities, this episode gives you a grounded and actionable mindset to build lasting wealth—especially when others are panicking.

00:00 Kicking Off the Inner Circle Meetup
02:14 Why Market Volatility Shouldn’t Shake You
03:05 A Macro View of Stock Market Trends
05:52 Buying Opportunities in Chaos
07:05 Who’s Actually Impacted by Market Dips
09:19 Utility in Staying Focused on Cash Flow
11:01 What Makes a Strong Financial Plan
14:15 Political Strategy & Economic Moves
16:59 Final Thoughts: Protect Your Peace, Stick to the Plan

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Episode Transcription

@realjeffsmith (00:02)

Welcome to another episode of the Tactical Empire. I am joined by Sean Rider. What's going on, my man?

 

Shawn Rider (00:09)

I mean we fly out I fly out tomorrow for Jacksonville, Florida for our inner circle meetup. I'm assuming you're driving

 

@realjeffsmith (00:20)

I am. I am driving. Making short little jaunt north.

 

Shawn Rider (00:24)

You're in Orlando area. How far is Jacksonville from Orlando?

 

@realjeffsmith (00:29)

Two and a half hours.

 

Shawn Rider (00:31)

That's not bad. That's a podcast or two. Half an audiobook.

 

@realjeffsmith (00:36)

Exactly.

 

Exactly. Too easy. Too easy. So yeah, I'm. Yeah, yeah, I'm super excited about the meetup. I mean, it's it's been a little bit of last minute headaches with it, but. It. It's definitely I'm excited. I'm excited to get rolling with it and put on a good show for the guys. Make some.

 

Shawn Rider (00:41)

Yes.

 

Awesome man, you have a good week so far?

 

That's

 

@realjeffsmith (01:05)

Make some plans,

 

Shawn Rider (01:05)

always...

 

@realjeffsmith (01:06)

structure some things for them and get them moving. Expand their brains, get them around some good people.

 

Shawn Rider (01:14)

think it was good that we did like a 90 day planning call in the group last week and obviously that's gonna help the guys that may not be at the meetup but for me I kind of have to go over my thoughts in quarterly planning more than one time so jotting down what we did on that exercise last week was a good head start and then I feel like I'll come into more clarity.

 

once i disconnect from the day to day here at the house and and get on the plane like i said only the previous episodes i'd start on the drive to the airport so that'll be tomorrow uh... tomorrow twenty four hours from now i'll be at the airport i'll be bored my plane in an hour from from then tomorrow so ready to rock man uh... it's gonna be good to see you good to see the other guys so other than that it's been good

 

@realjeffsmith (02:02)

Yeah, I'm super excited. If you're missing this one and you're listening to this, you should be in the group by October. Just so you know, another one's

 

Shawn Rider (02:08)

Yeah.

 

Well, that's if that's if people don't go berserk over what's happening in the equities market, so we're gonna talk a little bit today about The recent drop I mean from this recording the last 48 72 hours has been about a seven and a half eight percent drop in the stock market. We're talking early April 2025 if you're listening to this later

 

I did look at the markets before we got on here and they're up about 2.5%. Why should people, regardless if they're in the market or not in the market, I think it's easier for people that aren't in the market, why should they not really care about a 48, 72 hour, 8 % drop in the market?

 

@realjeffsmith (03:05)

Oh man, I could go in a lot of different directions with this one. You just have to, you have to be unemotional about it. It's not really that big of a deal. It hasn't, it dropped 10 % at one point, I believe overall, and then it's spiked back up since Friday or whenever it was being volatile. I think, I think what Trump is doing is a lot deeper than people realize.

 

long term, I think we're feeling some short term pain. But but the reality of it is if you if you pay attention to the actual numbers, like if you had a portfolio in 2020. Five years ago, it has literally grown by 100 % to this point. And, and if you didn't cash out last week, it is still right there in that those same

 

similar numbers. So I think you have to really look at the stock market from a macro standpoint and understand that the gains are. I read a book about this one time that talked about in the last literally 80 years. The majority of losses occurred in like eight single days. So it was literally just like panic selling that caused the dips.

 

and caused the losses. And if you removed like those few days from the market, the gains in the overall market were absolutely astronomical. Like it was like, if you had rolled your money in there and then avoided those few days, like you were at like 41 % gains. And obviously, the actual average was a lot lower than that because a lot of people sold.

 

I, for me, it looked like a great buying opportunity. Like, I mean, crypto's down, stock market's down, a lot of individual stocks are on sale. Tesla's been cut in half. You can't tell me Tesla's not going to come back to some extent. I mean, there's a lot of huge companies involved with that stuff that, that are kind of on sale right now. So if stocks are your thing, there's money to be made right now for sure. The,

 

There's a strategy that's deeper than what I think most people understand what's going on. I personally think that all what went on last week was kind of just a little back and forth war between the administration and the very, very wealthy people that own 92 % of the stock market investments. So there's a very small percentage of people that own like 90 % of the stock market.

 

And so, so they can make moves that shift the entire market for regular people. And so what I think was a little bit of headbutting last week over the tariff situation. And then I think that those that hold a lot of equity in the stock market kind of try to flex their muscle and kind of figure out who was going to call who's bluff.

 

What I really think is happening is they're trying to cause, I think the administration is trying to cause volatility in the market so that the Fed will lower interest rates and so that we can lower the overall debt ceiling down and refinance our debt into much lower terms, which will then make everything cheaper for everybody. so the whole argument is really just theater.

 

normal people should just hold on. And buy stuff.

 

Shawn Rider (07:05)

think it is just theater and the stat that you're referencing is like 90 % of the equities market is owned by 10 % of Americans. So like, what are we doing here? Like most of the people that are freaking out and being emotional, like we're not the ones that own the equities. And that's not to say that like your 401k to you doesn't matter, but it does reinforce what we teach, which is like.

 

Your net worth is just a number on a paper unless it's paying you and unless you're, I mean, if you're not in retirement, your 401k is not paying you. If you are in retirement, that's probably the only people, if you're in retirement and you're taking distributions, you're like the only people that are really affected from any dip in the stock market. But I'm cautious to say that because

 

If this is just like a week or two and then we normalize and even come back over 50 % of what that 8 % drop was in two days, like that's not, for most people, that's not gonna make a difference. But if it's a sustained drop, I think that matters only to people in retirement taking distributions. The rest of us, it doesn't matter. It's just a number on a piece of paper. It's not doing anything for you. If your net worth is made up of things that are paying you today, that matters.

 

For the people that have equities that are investing for cash flow, if you're buying dividend paying stocks, it's just a buying opportunity. You probably have your main stocks that you're looking at and they've been a little inflated, so you may not have been able to get into the market as much as you wanted. You may not have been able to hit your numbers the way that you want, so great opportunity, like you said, for the buying opportunity.

 

But for me, all it is is and again, we still have – well, we rolled my Weiss 401k into a traditional IRA literally three weeks ago. And now I'm like, shit, I could have just sat on the cash for a month, but no one knows what the market is going to do. It would have been a really good buying opportunity for us to get into the market yesterday as opposed to three weeks ago with that rollover. But for us, I personally don't have my own money in the stock market. So for me, it's just a big distraction.

 

@realjeffsmith (09:06)

Yeah.

 

Shawn Rider (09:19)

That's the utility to not getting distracted is what I kind of want to reinforce this with today because with what we talk about with the seven levels of financial freedom where it's like, where's your access to liquidity? Where is your money protected, which we say higher on the cash value life insurance, which literally cannot go down in value.

 

So even though the stock market drops, our money keeps growing at an annualized rate consistently every year, forever, uninterrupted, compounding over time. And then we're buying cash flowing assets. So for me, it's just a distraction. And I think people compare return on investment, which is obviously important, but if your investment causes stress and it causes you to worry and that is out of your control to fix,

 

Real estate can be stressful, but you proactively do things when things occur. There's absolutely nothing you can do with your 401k or stocks when the market drops. And by nothing, I mean don't sell. The only thing you can do is buy, but you have to have liquidity to buy. if all your money is stuck in equities and it's something that you don't plan on touching, then this is irrelevant. It's just a distraction.

 

@realjeffsmith (10:30)

Yeah.

 

Shawn Rider (10:41)

I just don't even like bringing it up but I wanted to bring it up today because there may be people that are either stress themselves or watching people in their sphere that are stressed and it's just to reinforce it. What I do like, what I do like is because of the proliferation of social media, there are a lot more people, at least in my network, maybe it's just my network because of who I follow, like when these things happen they immediately start posting like, don't sell your shit, like just chill out.

 

@realjeffsmith (11:01)

Okay.

 

Shawn Rider (11:09)

Let the people do their thing and this is a bunch of like you said it's theater, it's people pulling strings, you don't own the majority of the stock market, like just let them do their thing. You're a whole month for the long run so just give that bit of reassurance to the people is really kind of like all I wanted to say about it today.

 

@realjeffsmith (11:28)

Yeah, I I received some text messages last week, like dumb this down for me in a third grade manner, tell me what's happening. And I was like, I wrote some long post, I was like, or long text in response to these guys. But it was essentially everything I just said. I was like, this is going to pass pretty quickly.

 

The thing that I think is interesting is like when I see things like this, I see opportunity to buy things. And so like what's available while everybody else is panicking. But the thing that I don't see is like this and knock on wood, we can return to this date in 12 months. I don't foresee at this point, like a month ago, I didn't know what the fuck they were doing economically. Now I can kind of see the game that's being played.

 

And I don't think we're going to go through a sustained dip. And I could be wrong, but I think this period of pain is going to be shorter than most people think it is, meaning the opportunity window is going to be narrower than we're used to. Usually you go into a recession and it takes a few years to shake off the cobwebs and get everything rolling. And I...

 

Shawn Rider (12:41)

Mm.

 

@realjeffsmith (12:50)

the economic moves that I'm seeing made in the last three weeks, four weeks to me.

 

project a steep ascent that's not far away. I'm thinking like six months and I'm like, holy shit, like that's not a very long time to like take advantage of opportunities, right? In 2008, we had five fucking years to still snatch up properties and do all the real estate deals and everything else. mean, you really had three years, but there was a ton of wealth transferred in that period of time.

 

from 2008 to 2011, like absolutely made people. Like they went from zero to done done in those three year period. And that's what I'm looking for in what we're seeing now. Like, do we have that trajectory? And we might, and like I said, I mean, even if it's rolling in six months, we probably have 18, 24 months to like continue to make moves.

 

that that will be substantial and good deals going forward, whether it's buying businesses, investing in any of these assets, especially if they if they lessen the burden of lending and kind of take some of the reins off the commercial market, especially. So we'll see. But that's what I'm seeing on things.

 

Shawn Rider (14:15)

Yeah.

 

I would like the commercial markets to lighten the load. have a commercial building listed and it's hard to sell when the rates exceed cap rates on all these buildings that are on the market locally. I think it's interesting. I think there's an argument to be made that we obviously have an administration that is being vocal and more proactive than most people are used to, which means most people are comfortable with. But there's an argument to be made that like...

 

to do all these moves this early in administration, you got to look at the voting cycle and we have midterms in less than two years. And so if what you said turns out to hold true, and I hope it does, that it's a short opportunity before you see a incline again, that would bode well for the people who are making the moves right now because people will forget how shitty a bad first three months are.

 

@realjeffsmith (15:06)

Mm-hmm.

 

Shawn Rider (15:15)

to their portfolio if you start turning things around and their 401k is a real nice in the next 18 months when we got to go back to the the ballot box and and things like that so I think a lot of this is is over my head I don't dive into it too deeper. I just try and stay in my lane but it is I do like to see the proactivity of things moving and I don't think that it's gonna be regardless if it's three months or a year like

 

If you implemented what we've been saying on this podcast for over two years, you should have dry powder to take advantage of times like this. You should have capital reserves. You should have money protected and you should have cash flow coming towards you, whether that's through active sources by creating personal development for yourself and getting better at your job or the assets that you should be buying. And so it's moments like these that will hopefully help people reconsider.

 

what they've been doing with their money and investments and if they've been hee-hawing around and not doing some of the things that we recommend because I don't see too many people freak out in our group. I don't think there's been one post in our inner circle about what's happening over the past seven days. Not one post. And it's because the guys are focused on the right thing. I think that is the biggest reinforcement of this podcast is like,

 

If you're doing the things that you need to do to better yourself and your portfolio, it's irrelevant what the headlines are saying right now and what's happening to a digital number on a computer screen, quite frankly, in my opinion.

 

@realjeffsmith (16:59)

Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, like I said, I think you a lot of people are incentivized to make people panic in these situations. And so like, if you just hold fast and do what you do, stay narrow and you'll you'll be just fine. To your point, I think they're doing a tremendous amount of activity because of the midterms, like you said, because they can't

 

take two years to implement this stuff and it not put any money back in like main streets pockets. I think that's their entire intent. They're executing a plan at a breakneck pace so that we can spend a year in the economic environment that they've got planned so that people can feel it. And you're already seeing it. Eggs are down, gas is down, food is...

 

Shawn Rider (17:36)

Right.

 

@realjeffsmith (17:56)

settling back down. was an inflation report yesterday. I believe it's at 1.2%. It's the lowest it's been in five years. And so like the moot, the levers that they're pulling in spite of what you're seeing on the news are the right level levers long term. And, and anyone that says otherwise doesn't really know shit about finances. And like, that's, that's just the bottom line. I mean,

 

These vaccine experts are now stock market experts and tariff experts. so just, I would plug your ears and move on down the road. Love your family, save some money, get wealthy, get fit, have fun, smile a lot. That's all you need to focus on.

 

Shawn Rider (18:46)

It's just interesting where they want to hurt the rich so bad and what's happening is hurting the rich. 90 % of the equities is owned by 10 % of the people. You are hurting the people who own the stock market. And so to say that in particular, the president only does things to support the rich. And what he's doing right now is making a lot of rich people not happy. So I just step back.

 

Stay in my lane, focus on what I'm building, but I'm sticking to the plan that we've implemented for the past five, six years that you taught me five, six years ago. And it is always reinforced in times like this. But hey, if you're in the stock market and you still followed our plan, you would have access to a lot of liquidity and a lot of money to borrow from and dump it in there and have a really good buying opportunity. if you don't know what we're talking about, hit us up.

 

and we'll send you some resources on the seven levels of financial freedom. But Jeff, that's all I had to say about it. If that's all you got to say, feel free, send the people out.

 

@realjeffsmith (19:53)

Oh yeah guys, join us in the Facebook community, the Tactical Empire. It's a free Facebook group. The Tactical Empire is on every platform. You can follow that page and Sean and I are on Instagram and Facebook. You can DM us over there. Sean's on TikTok. He does dances frequently over there. So, but I don't know what his handle is over there, but so we'll have to get that to you. I kid, I kid.

 

Shawn Rider (20:14)

No, I'm not on TikTok. I am not on TikTok. I don't know what the board is.

 

@realjeffsmith (20:22)

Just trying to draw in some more eyeballs, man. They wanted to see you dancing. All right. Guys, have a great week. Kick ass. We will see you next week.

 

Shawn Rider (20:36)

That's funny.